Uganda Violent Election's Aftermath
The Ugandan president, Yoweri Museveni, won his sixth term with 58.6 percent of the vote last month in an election marred by unprecedented violence and repression. Measures supposedly aimed at enforcing Covid-19 regulations were actually used to criminalize political competition and prevent the opposition from participating in electoral campaigns. President Yoweri Museveni’s security forces targeted opposition candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, known popularly as “Bobi Wine”.
Kyagulanyi and his party, The National Unity Platform, strongly rejected election results calling them fraudulent. The United States and European Union supported Kyagulanyi’s sentiments, as they have openly expressed their concerns over the credibility of the Jan. 14 election. The United States called for an audit of the returns on the election result. Furthermore, to add to the skepticism surrounding the election results, on the previous Thursday before the election Museveni’s government shut down all social media outlets including Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter in Uganda. The government also sent military vehicles into the street on that same day. Soldiers and police were out in force in the capital of Kampala on Saturday.
Even with the large controversy, it appears that Museveni will likely rule for another five years. Although, the regime’s growing legitimacy problem presents increasingly stark choices for the government and for foreign donors. The tensions between the government, people, and international powers will likely lead to various points of conflict. So let's take a deeper look at Uganda’s election process and current leaders to see what the future will look like.
Museveni, Uganda’s current president, came to power 35 years ago, hailed as one of Africa’s new generation of leaders. After years of military rule, wars, and instability under the regimes of Milton Obote and Idi Amin, Ugandans welcomed Museveni as a liberation hero. Museveni also gained legitimacy within the World Bank Group and other foreign donors such as the United States, who invested heavily in the new government.
But his liberation hero image grew tainted over the years, amid endemic corruption and controversial maneuvers to stay in power. Museveni’s legitimacy problem becomes more acute with Uganda’s shifting demographics. Currently, 77 percent of the population is younger than 30 and have grown up in a time of relative peace, so younger Ugandans are focused on jobs and public services rather than peace. Currently Museveni’s government is failing them, as only 75,000 out of 700,000 young individuals who are of working age actually have a job, meaning that over ⅔ of the population in Uganda is to be disenfranchised.
Now, the greatest question that will be plaguing Museveni’s 6th presidency is: How will he maintain his hold over such a largely disenfranchised population?
Massive supplementary military budgets and excessive use of force ahead of the polls suggest a further militarization of his rule. The government will probably continue to contain Kyagulanyi and his inner circle through repression and isolation — a strategy it deployed to contain former opposition leader Kizza Besigye in the previous election. Many of Kyagulanyi’s supporters seemed unintimidated by government crackdowns during the campaign. But, a recent spate of kidnappings of opposition supporters by armed government groups is spreading fear; at least 31 people remain unaccounted for. Kyagulanyi alleges that as many as 3,000 of his supporters have been unlawfully jailed or have “disappeared.”
Unlike the brutalization of prominent figures, these forced disappearances made few international headlines. This might force Museveni to create an open “dialogue” with those who disagree with him. This may signal a possible reinvention of his party’s “big tent” politics — aimed at including individuals and groups from across the political spectrum. It remains to be seen whether such dialogue may result in more than the offer of government positions to opposition leaders and “brown envelopes” — the cash handouts that became a staple of political culture under Museveni’s rule. Although there are high hopes for cooperation between the two sides, it is much more likely that Museveni will silence his opponents with force.
It has been 2 months since the election and Kyagulanyi’s supporters are currently protesting against the election results. On March 11, Kyagulanyi was imprisoned by Museveni, alongside other members of the National Unity Platform. In addition, the National Unity Platform stated that “Many of our brothers and sisters disappeared and they’ve never been seen again, and those who have been lucky to return have spoken of being subjected to unspeakable torture and brutality.”
Museveni has dismissed allegations that his forces have illegally detained civilians, saying his army “is a disciplined force” and that his party “does not kill” its opponents. However, he did acknowledge that he had beefed up security ahead of the elections by deploying soldiers from a commando unit previously deployed in Somalia who “killed a few” people he described as “terrorists”.
Still, at the end of the day, Uganda has never seen a peaceful transfer of power, so all of the violence and tensions that we see today is unsurprising in context. We will probably see Museveni keep his power and have a stable presidency by next year.
